Americans Are Told to ‘Buckle Up’ as Surging Heating Oil Prices Could Bring Painfully Expensive Winter Bills

Diesel just hit a record $6.40 a gallon. Gasoline is closing in on $4.50. And energy analysts say the real shock is still coming, in the mail, when Northeast homeowners open their first heating oil bill of the season. Some households burning 1,000 gallons this winter could be staring down a $6,000 total, according to one energy adviser who says the pain at the pump is only a preview.

National Gas Average Jumps 7 Cents Overnight to $4.44

The national average for gasoline jumped 7 cents overnight to $4.44 a gallon, up nearly 50% since before the Iran war started in February. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan says the trajectory is not flattening out. He projects the average could reach $4.50 within days, driven by conflicts thousands of miles away that keep tightening the supply of crude reaching American refineries.

Diesel Hits a Record $6.40, and California Is Already Past $8

Diesel, essential for transporting food and other goods around the U.S., hit a record $6.40 a gallon, up 77 cents since the beginning of September. De Haan says diesel could climb to $6.60 as early as this weekend, with a handful of states already past that mark, including California, where diesel now averages $8.35 a gallon.

Gulf Oil Adviser Warns Americans to “Buckle Up” for Turbocharged Inflation

Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser for Gulf Oil, says drivers can cut back on gasoline use, but diesel is harder to avoid since it powers trucking, rail and construction. “Buckle up and recognize that inflation is likely to get turbocharged by these high prices,” he told CBS News, adding that nearly every crop grown in the country depends on that same fuel to move.

Northeast Households Could Owe $6,000 for a Single Winter of Heating Oil

Elevated diesel prices are expected to raise Americans’ utility bills too, Kloza says, and roughly 4 million Northeast households that rely on heating oil could be in for an especially expensive winter. “They’re looking at prices in the $6 range,” he said. “If you use 1,000 gallons in a winter, that’s $6,000.” Diesel and heating oil are drawn from the same barrel of crude.

Government Forecasters Confirm the Squeeze Is National, Not Just Regional

A separate industry projection backs up Kloza’s warning. The National Energy Assistance Directors Association projects average U.S. home heating costs will climb 8.7% this winter to roughly $1,030 per household, more than double the pace of inflation. Heating oil customers face the steepest jump of any fuel type, at over 31%, while one in six households is already behind on utility payments.

Brent Crude Near $103 as Two Wars Start Looking Like Three

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, traded around $103 a barrel Thursday, as geopolitical conflicts pushed gasoline and diesel costs higher for Americans. “It’s the two wars, which now look like the three,” Kloza said, pointing to the Iran war, an expansion tied to Iran-backed Houthi attacks, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war grinding into its fifth year.

A Saudi Pipeline Attack Just Erased Millions of Barrels a Day

Fuel prices are climbing because refining capacity has shrunk both overseas and in the U.S., De Haan said, worsening the global oil shortage. Reuters reports Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West pipeline, its main bypass around the blocked Strait of Hormuz, after drones launched from Iraq struck it in the Riyadh and Medina regions, a separate incident from the Houthi strikes hitting other Saudi energy facilities that same week.

Ukrainian Drone Strikes Have Knocked Out 3 Million Barrels of Russian Refining

Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian oil infrastructure have dealt a major blow to Russia’s refining capacity, cutting off a key global supplier, De Haan said. “Russia exports a significant amount of diesel to the global supply chain,” he said. “Without that export, which Russia has banned since July, it makes it less and less likely that Russia can meaningfully contribute.”

Blue States, Red States and a Refining Map That Decides Who Pays More

Illinois gas averaged $4.78 a gallon Thursday, more than 30 cents above the national average, while California drivers paid more than $6. “Blue states tend to be more expensive. Red states tend to be cheaper, and that has a lot to do with where the energy is and where the refining is,” Kloza said. For now, neither coast nor either party is getting a break at the pump.