Higher Gas Prices Are Hurting Americans. Leaked Audio Shows They’re Hurting a Republican Campaign, Too
Gas prices are no longer just a pump problem. They are a campaign problem. In a leaked recording from a closed-door fundraiser, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate in a tight U.S. Senate race, said the war and high fuel prices are dragging down his campaign. Drivers feel that same pinch every week. Why would a candidate say that to donors, and what does it mean for next month’s vote?
The recording comes from a September fundraiser with donors and lobbyists, and Axios published it last week. A donor asked what issues were dragging on the campaign. Paxton answered, “It’s not tariffs … it’s the war, it’s gas prices, it’s diesel.” With diesel over $6 a gallon, he said, “people are feeling the pinch.” He called it by far the campaign’s biggest problem.
Paxton’s campaign did not dispute the recording. Spokesperson Madison Cercy called the comments “a non-story,” saying Paxton said what every Texan already knows: gas and diesel prices are too high. She added that President Donald Trump is doing everything he can to bring prices down. So the real story may be less about the admission and more about how big the pump problem has become.
Most Americans Blame Trump’s Policies for Higher Costs, and Fuel Prices Are About 50% Above Pre-War Levels
The pinch Paxton described is real at the pump. Before the Iran war began in late February, regular gas averaged about $2.80 a gallon. By early October it was about 49% higher, according to the American Action Forum. On a 15-gallon fill-up, that is roughly an extra $20. Diesel, which moves trucks and farm equipment, has topped $6 a gallon, which Paxton said also pushes up food prices.
Polls show voters are noticing. The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found 74% of Americans say the economy is doing poorly, and 65% blame President Trump’s policies directly for higher costs. AP-NORC polling also found 17% approve of how Trump is handling the cost of living, and 26% approve of his handling of the economy. These are national numbers, not Texas numbers, but they help explain why fuel prices loom large.
Republicans say they have answers. Trump has said his administration has done more to lower everyday prices than Democrats have. Paxton’s campaign says he would help by backing a bigger child tax credit and larger deductions for health care and buying a home, and it says his opponent would raise taxes. Efforts in Washington to pause the federal gas tax, meanwhile, have stalled in the Senate, according to The Hill. All of that is landing in a tight race.
Paxton and Talarico Are Locked in a Tight Race, and Paxton Says He Has Little Control Over What Matters
The race is close. The Guardian reports that polls show Paxton and Democrat James Talarico neck and neck, with Talarico holding a small lead. A YouGov poll and a New York Times/Siena poll each put Talarico ahead by 6 points, according to Newsy. Texas is a state Trump won by double digits, and he appeared with Paxton at a San Antonio rally the night the audio came out.
It is not the first leak. Politico reported Paxton saying “I’ve never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign,” and that issues were coming from Washington. The New York Times reported he said Trump’s Republican midterm convention “dropped” his poll numbers. Taken together, the recordings suggest a candidate describing a race shaped by forces outside his own control.
On gas prices, Paxton said it plainly. In the Axios recording, he said he has “no control over gas prices” and cannot stop the war. One political strategist quoted by The Hill says the levers of power have very little effect on prices. Even so, the president has some tools, like an Oct. 5 order expanding tax-free dyed diesel for truckers. The biggest swings come from oil, which depends on the war.
Gas Prices Have Become a Campaign Issue, but the Leak Does Not Tell Us Who Will Win
A private remark is not a vote. Paxton’s comments show that he sees fuel prices as a problem, and polls show voters are unhappy with costs. But they do not prove that gas prices alone will decide the Texas race. Voters weigh many things, and polls are snapshots, not predictions. The election is Nov. 3, and Texans will make the call, not a recording.
There is also more than one way to read the audio. Axios, as summarized by BizPac, noted Paxton had defended U.S. involvement in Iran publicly, so some see a gap between his public and private words. His campaign sees it differently: it says he stated what Texans already know and is offering tax relief. Either way, one fact stands: his campaign and many voters agree that prices are too high.
The most telling part of this story is not the blame. It is the admission that some of the biggest forces in a campaign are outside any candidate’s control. Drivers know that feeling well. They cannot control the price at the pump either. In the end, the pump and the ballot box meet on Nov. 3, when voters decide whether the price they pay belongs in the choice they make.