The 2026 World Cup Will Be Bigger Than Ever, but Its Environmental Cost Could Be Huge
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to break nearly every record in the tournament’s history. Hosted jointly by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, it will feature 48 teams instead of 32 and expand from 64 matches to 104. FIFA sees the changes as a way to include more nations and bring the sport to a larger global audience. Environmental researchers, however, say the same decisions could make the tournament the most carbon-intensive World Cup ever staged.
A Dramatic Expansion From Previous Tournaments
The expansion represents the biggest structural change in World Cup history. Four additional groups, 16 extra teams, and 40 more matches mean more players, officials, media personnel, and supporters traveling across North America. Researchers estimate the larger format alone will substantially increase emissions compared with previous tournaments, even though organizers are using existing stadiums rather than building many new ones.
Why Travel Is Driving Most of the Concern
The geography of the tournament sits at the center of the climate debate. Matches will be played across 16 cities stretching thousands of miles from Vancouver to Miami. Analysts estimate that roughly 85% to 87% of the tournament’s emissions will come from travel, primarily air travel, as teams, journalists, and millions of fans move between host cities. Researchers estimate flight-related emissions alone could exceed 7.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.
The Numbers Behind the Emissions Forecasts
Several studies have produced slightly different estimates, but they point in the same direction. Greenly, a carbon accounting platform cited by Reuters, estimates the tournament could generate 7.8 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. Researchers from Scientists for Global Responsibility and partner organizations estimate the footprint could reach roughly 9 million tons, with some scenarios rising to 15 million tons. For comparison, Qatar 2022 generated approximately 3.6 to 3.8 million tons of emissions, meaning the 2026 event could more than double its predecessor’s climate impact.
What the Impact Looks Like for Fans
The emissions become easier to visualize through individual journeys. BBC Sport calculated that an England supporter attending every match from the group stage through a hypothetical run to the final could generate approximately 3.4 to 3.5 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent through travel alone. The journey would involve nearly 15,000 miles of travel, roughly equivalent to heating an average UK home for 19 months. Some fan bases could face even larger travel footprints depending on their team’s path through the tournament.
The Hidden Emissions Beyond Airplanes
Flights are not the only source of emissions. Sports ecologist Madeleine Orr told Reuters that broadcasting, streaming, betting platforms, data feeds, satellites, and the billions of devices used by fans worldwide create a massive digital footprint that is often overlooked in official sustainability discussions. Modern viewing habits increasingly involve multiple screens, adding substantial energy demands that are rarely included in headline emissions figures.
Climate Change Could Affect the Tournament Itself
The irony is that the World Cup may also become a victim of the climate trends contributing to these concerns. Research cited by climate and sports experts suggests that 14 of the 16 host cities could experience temperatures high enough to raise concerns about player and spectator safety. Studies examining heat stress risks have warned that extreme temperatures may require match delays, schedule adjustments, or additional safety measures during the tournament.
Critics Say FIFA’s Climate Goals Face a Credibility Test
FIFA has publicly committed to reducing emissions through the U.N. Sports for Climate Action Framework, pledging to halve its emissions by 2030 and reach net zero by 2040. Critics argue that expanding tournaments while increasing long-distance travel works against those objectives. Researchers from Loughborough University, the University of Bristol, and the University of Manchester contend that commercial growth and tournament expansion are overshadowing environmental considerations.
FIFA Says Sustainability Efforts Are Underway
FIFA rejects the notion that environmental concerns are being ignored. The organization points to its use of existing stadiums, regional scheduling clusters designed to reduce travel distances, public transportation initiatives, recycling programs, food-waste reduction efforts, and tree-planting projects across North America. FIFA says the tournament is guided by a sustainability and human rights strategy intended to reduce environmental impacts while creating positive long-term benefits for host communities.
A Debate That Could Shape Future Tournaments
The environmental discussion surrounding the 2026 World Cup extends far beyond one summer of football. The next men’s World Cup in 2030 will span Europe, Africa, and South America, while Saudi Arabia is scheduled to host in 2034. Those decisions have intensified questions about whether international football can continue expanding while meeting climate goals. The 2026 tournament may ultimately be remembered not only for the matches played on the field, but also for how it forced football to confront the environmental consequences of becoming a truly global spectacle.